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A Research on China's Economic Growth Potential Author : Chong-en Bai, Qiong Zhang Publisher : Routledge Date : May 23, 2017


After impressive growth of about 10% per annum for three decades, China's visible signs of economic slowdown since 2008 have been subject to much contention. What causes the deceleration? What should we expect in an era of China's 6% growth? This book answers these questions in three parts.

Although it is widely accepted that China can hardly continue its high-speed growth model, estimations for its future growth potential differ greatly. The first part of this book predicts China's growth to 2050, which considers both cross-country historical experiences and China's own demographic structure and employment participation features. In the second part, the book offers a comprehensive estimation of China's national and provincial total factor productivity (TFP) over the period of 1978 to 2014 based on comparable data. It then analyzes the causes of China's economic slowdown from a productivity point of view. Finally, this book correspondingly outlines policy recommendations, including supply-side structural reform and macroeconomic policy frameworks, to effectively address the issue of decline in both labor and labor productivity growth.

This book will attract scholars and students of economics and China's economic studies.

Table of Contents:


1. China's Growth Potential to 2050: A Supply-Side Forecast Based on Cross-Country Productivity Convergence and Its Featured Labor Force



    Framework and Methodology  

    Data Source and Growth Forecast  

    Is it Likely that Growth Potential has been underestimated?  


2. Is China's Current Slowdown a Cyclical Downturn or a Long-run Trend: A Productivity-Based Analysis


    Literature Review

    Theoretical Framework and Analysis

    Data Source and Indicators

    Decomposing the Recent Decline in Productivity Growth

    Roles of the Stimulus Policy Induced Investment Surge


3. Policy Implications



About the authors:

Chong-en Bai is the Mansfield Freeman Chair Professor of the School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University. His research areas include economic institutions, public economics, economic growth and development, and China's economy.

Qiong Zhang is an Associate Professor of the School of Public Administration and Policy, Renmin University of China. Her research focuses on labor, population, and economic growth. Her research interests mainly relate to family economics and public economics.